The core firearms market is still working through normalization. Same-store new firearm unit sales declined approximately 13% in 2025. Early 2026 forecasts from major retail data sources pointed to further unit declines in the 7–12% range for the year, absent a major external catalyst. Inventory has been managed down. Dealers are more selective with open-to-buy. Handguns have been more resilient than long guns. Ammunition has faced its own pricing and margin pressure. The broad post-2020 surge is behind us.
In that environment the instinct is predictable: tighten up, lean harder on the established distributor relationships that still move volume, and wait for demand to stabilize. That instinct is understandable. It is also incomplete.
Soft demand does not reduce the value of direct dealer relationships. In several important ways it increases it.
Control over allocation becomes more important when volume is scarce
When every unit is easier to sell, the cost of imperfect allocation is low. Product finds a home eventually. When demand is selective and dealers are cautious, the cost of shipping the wrong mix to the wrong accounts rises. Manufacturers who can see which dealers are actually turning product, which are requesting reorders, and which are sitting on aging inventory have a meaningful advantage in deciding where the next production run should go. That visibility is limited when the primary signal is distributor sell-in.
Margin recovery matters more when top-line growth is harder
Distributor margins are a real and ongoing cost. In a high-growth environment they are easier to absorb. In a flatter or declining unit environment they represent a larger percentage of the available economics. A hybrid approach that routes a portion of volume direct — even if it starts small — recovers margin that can fund marketing, product development, or simply improve contribution. The math does not require abandoning distributors. It requires having a path that is not 100% intermediated.
Sell-through data becomes a competitive edge instead of a nice-to-have
In a rising market, lagging indicators are often good enough. In a normalizing market, the manufacturers who know which SKUs are moving at retail, at what velocity, and in which geographies can adjust production, pricing, and promotions faster than those working from delayed or aggregated distributor reports. The data gap that was always present becomes more expensive when forecasting error has higher consequences.
Dealer relationships are stickier when dealers have fewer dollars to spend
When open-to-buy is constrained, dealers consolidate around the brands and programs that are easiest to work with and most responsive. A manufacturer that can offer clean catalog data, reliable order routing, transparent inventory, and direct communication has an advantage over one that is only reachable through a shared distributor portal and a sales rep covering dozens of lines. Soft demand increases the premium on operational excellence at the manufacturer–dealer interface.
The hybrid model is less risky than it appears
The fear of channel conflict is real, but it is often overstated relative to the actual alternative. Staying 100% dependent on a consolidating distribution layer while demand softens is itself a risk. Building a controlled direct layer — starting with a defined set of accounts, clear rules of engagement, and clean operational plumbing — does not require declaring war on existing distributors. It creates an option. Options have value precisely when the environment is uncertain.
None of this requires a dramatic overnight shift. It requires recognizing that the conditions that made pure distributor dependence feel safest are no longer the conditions we are operating in. Soft demand does not reward inertia. It rewards the manufacturers who can see more clearly, allocate more precisely, recover more margin, and stay closer to the dealers who are still writing orders.
The suppressor category demonstrated what happens when demand becomes discontinuous. The broader market is demonstrating what happens when demand becomes selective. In both cases the manufacturers with stronger direct relationships and better data are better positioned.
If you are looking at your current mix of distributor and direct volume and wondering whether the balance still makes sense in a softer environment, that is a conversation worth having.
Sources
- Gearfire RetailBI 2025 Annual Report (via NSSF): 2025 same-store new firearm unit sales declined ~13%; 2026 unit volume forecast of –7% to –12% absent a meaningful demand catalyst; inventory down 10.6% year-over-year and ~3% below 2019 levels; handguns declined 11.5% vs. rifles –15.4% and shotguns –16.0%; ammunition units –12.4% and revenue –16.7%.
- RetailBI Q1 2026 Shooting Sports Report: New firearm unit sales declined 7.6% year-over-year in the first quarter.